Up and running again

It has been a long couple weeks without my own computer, but a few days ago I picked up my new laptop.

I’m not sure I like Windows 8.  It’s very Android-like.  Android is fine for one of those small tablets, but it’s very weird trying to operate it with a mouse.  Right now the Skype application keeps randomly jumping to the front, interrupting whatever else I’m working on, and I can’t figure out how to turn it off.  But I’m sure I’ll figure it out and adapt.  I always do.

My most important concern was making sure I could get my old wallet back.  I followed the simple instructions I’d been given, which was to be sure to first copy over the Devcoin wallet application files onto the exact same spot on the new system, and then download and install the wallet client.  With the help of a computer savvy friend, I got that done, and when I opened the wallet for the first time, it started off looking exactly like I’d left it before the old system crashed.  Then when the connections were made, it started to show all the transactions which had happened since the crash.  When it was all said and done I had several million DVCs waiting for me.

Once I got home I had to figure out what to do with all those Devcoins.  Right now the prices are ridiculously low.  I have my high sell orders which pretty much stay on the exchange in anticipation of the next major pump, and lately I’ve started trying to earn some Bitcoin on the spread by buying low and selling higher.  For example, I bought 0.25 BTC worth of Devcoins at 22 sat, and then turned around and sold them at 28 sat.  Now I have bought 0.31 BTC worth of Devcoins at 21 sat and I’m hoping to be able to sell those at 27 sat.

Other than those trades where I start off by buying DVC at even lower prices, it is absolutely pointless to sell Devcoins at those prices.  Of course, I remember thinking the same thing back when the price of DVC dropped below 60 sat.  So I guess it’s a matter of perspective, and it is certainly possible that before round 28 is done paying out I will decide to sell off whatever I need to buy one Bitcoin at market price.  But I would really have to hold my nose to do it.

mcxNOW is holding its final sale of mxcFee shares, and I believe that is partly tying up the normal movements of the alt coin market.  It seems that people are wanting to put their Bitcoin towards cheap Fee shares.  But probably even more importantly, the exceptionally high price of Bitcoins relative to the Dollar and other national currencies is depressing the prices of the alt cryptos as people want to get out of the alts and back into Bitcoin and then sell their Bitcoins for fiat while the prices are high.

In any case, in the past few days I’ve noticed a lot of flat lines on the 24-hour Devcoin chart on mcxNOW.  It is really difficult to make money on a spread when there is no spread.  I’ve had to be patient.

My first successful trade pair (my strategy involves placing a buy and sell order simultaneously and leaving them there) involved attempting to take advantage of the difference in market price between mcxNOW and Vircurex.  This past Friday, Devcoins were selling for 22 sat on mcxNOW and 27 sat on Vircurex.  So I placed a buy order at 22 sat on mcxNOW, and sent over an equal amount of DVC over to Vircurex to sell at 28 sat.  At the time the bid price was 27 and the ask price was 29, and my order was the first sell order to go up at 28.  I figured it would fill fairly quickly.

My mcxNOW buy order filled fairly quickly.  My Vircurex order sat until sometime on Sunday.  By that time mcxNOW had caught up to where its bid and ask prices were comparable to Vircurex, and I wondered if it really had been worthwhile to ship my DVC to another exchange to try to sell them at a higher price.  In that case it may have been the right thing to do, because I’m not sure if mcxNOW ever got to 28 sat.  It hit 27 sat, but I’m not sure that it hit 28.

Although it’s nice to be able to take advantage of arbitrage between exchange platforms, I would much rather stick to one.  So I tried to set up two buy/sell order pairs on mcxNOW.  I had buy orders at 21 and 22 sat and sell orders at 27 and 28 sat.  For the longest time all the transactions happened only at either 24 or 25 sat, and I wondered if my orders would ever fill.  Then towards the end of the day, both my buy orders filled and then the platform dropped all the way down to 17 sat and now it’s looking like it may flatline right at 18 sat.  For the time being my two sell orders are orphaned, tying up my Bitcoin.  Since the buy orders filled I feel like I need to leave my sell orders up until they sell, but it could take several days for Devcoins to either rally or get pumped.  Once those orders do fill, I’m going to set up a buy and sell order over a smaller spread in the hopes of both filling sooner.

The low trading volume for DVC has been frustrating.  High volume facilitates more rapid price movements and the ability to play with a larger spread.  Others are no doubt playing this game with higher volume alt cryptos and it’s possible I may move in that direction, but for now I feel that I understand best how Devcoins behave, I have lots of them, and I want to use them to figure things out and make my mistakes with.

The other frustration, of course, has been the heavy selling pressure.  In my opinion, from sheer self-interest, it seems like it would be wiser to hang onto rather than sell Devcoins when it takes more than four million of them to buy one Bitcoin, and since the price has been better quite recently.  But people have different reasons and motivations.

Related to the heavy selling pressure is the obligatory criticism of those Devtome writers who are believed to be just dumping their Devcoins at whatever price they can get immediately, pushing the price down for everyone else.  I get annoyed by this because it ends up feeling like the writers get blamed for whatever may still be wrong with Devcoin.  Bitcoin Forum member weisoq made a point that hadn’t really sunk in before.  Apparently a lot of the earlier writers have stockpiled quite a few Devcoins from their previous writing efforts.  I get the impression that the amount stockpiled is easily in the high millions or even low billions.  This means that should a significant number of those early writers decide to dump their Devcoins, they could completely wipe out all the buy orders and force the price down to essentially zero for a good long time.  They refrain from doing so because they want to see Devcoins valued more highly, and because they refrain they resent the fact that the newer writers are not refraining and their actions are causing the perceived value of their stockpiles to decrease anyway.

When put that way I guess I can understand the resentment.  Personally I feel OK about selling off some of my DVCs and investing them as Bitcoin, but I don’t have any great desire to depress the price either.  I’ve tended to take advantage of buy walls so that I wasn’t selling down the buy column and dropping the price by several points on one purchase.  If I decided to sell off the amount of Devcoins that I have sitting on the mcxNOW exchange I could come pretty close to wiping out the buy column, and I’m just one writer.  So I guess I’m joining the ranks of the stockpilers.

But I’m not just sitting on my Devcoins.  There is one investment on CryptoStocks which gives a low but steady annual rate of return, and as long as Devcoins are cheap I’ve been buying up these securities and collecting and reinvesting the dividends.  As long as I’m going to stockpile Devcoins, then I’m going to at least make more of them.  I do earn some rate of return just from having Devcoins sitting in my mcxNOW account, but it fluctuates a lot based on trade volume.  If Devcoins ever get to be more expensive I will be happy I spent them now to build that pipeline.  I also figure I can sell off the dividends at whatever price suits me and know that the next day I’ll have more.  Right now I’m just trying to buy enough shares so that the dividend payment is large enough to be worth something.  I’d like to get to the point where I get paid as much in dividends as I get paid to write now.  Then I could quit writing if I wanted to, or just write for fun.

For the time being I do have to keep writing, and I have quite a bit of catching up to do in the next few days if I’m going to have a good payout for round 29.  For whatever reason the file which is supposed to help us keep track of where we are in terms of earnings is not working so I’m flying blind here, but I know that I have not written as much as I normally do for obvious reasons.  Plus I probably have to write more to earn the same share count I used to earn since I am not expending any resources into promoting my work.

It does seem, though, that whenever I don’t write as much as I believe is necessary to meet my earnings goal, another way to earn shares presents itself and it makes up the shortfall in writing shares.  This time it is the writer ratings.  Because writer ratings are a new things, there are two of them in this round, and each set of ratings pays up to five generation shares.  I completed the second set of writer ratings earlier today, which means that whatever my writing tally is I can add ten generation shares to that.  I also get paid for signing up writers and maintaining a copy of the receiver lines and some other administrative things, and those extra shares really do come in handy.

One place where depressed prices work in my favor is that they do tend to discourage other writers from contributing as they believe they won’t earn enough to make it worthwhile.  I don’t concern myself with the price of Devcoins when I’m writing.  I just write.  However I am vulnerable to life getting in the way and reducing my share count.  Because the prices are so depressed and have been quite low for longer than expected I’m hoping that I will also have less competition for shares from other local writers and that the shares I do get will be worth more.

I also hope that the share pool gets spread out over larger and larger groups of people.  It’s actually preferable to have lots of people own a little bit of a new currency than to have it concentrated into a few hands.  Round 29 will close in a few days but I truly do not know how many shares I will get paid this time.

But at least I can write to my heart’s content on my own computer.

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